Trends: the issues on the healthcare market's radar in 2025

The healthcare sector operates across multiple fronts, each with long-standing and complex issues that require resolution. Nevertheless, the arrival of a new year brings renewed expectations — or at the very least, a reinforcement of previous ones.

With this in mind, we invited members of our expert community — such as Marcio de Paula, Rita Ragazzi, Rogério Scarabel, Patrick Larragoiti Lucas, Luís Vitor Salomão y Paulo Zoppi — to share their insights on the key trends expected for this year. Additionally, we provide a brief recap of 2024 and highlight Gonzalo Grillo’s suggestions regarding new priorities for the sector over the next five years.

Green Rock Community Perspectives for 2025

Marcio de Paula

A Life Sciences executive with over 20 years of experience, he has worked in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, consumer health, and medical device sectors. He founded the Brazilian Network for Pharmaceutical Innovation, is a member of Embrapii and the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation in Toronto.

‍

For Marcio de Paula, digital health and the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) are the main issues for the healthcare market in 2025.

"Digital transformation and the use of AI will continue to shape the way we provide and access healthcare services. Solutions such as AI-assisted diagnostics, remote monitoring, and digital health platforms have the potential to increase efficiency and improve clinical outcomes. The challenge will be ensuring that these innovations are accessible and ethically regulated, avoiding the exclusion of vulnerable populations", reiterates the executive.

Right after, he also highlights the importance of mental health, which will remain a major discussion in 2025.

"With more attention from public and private organizations, the topic will create space for innovations in hybrid therapies (digital and in-person), which could reach a broader audience and help overcome the stigma associated with mental illnesses. The biggest barrier remains expanding access to quality services", adds De Paula.

Among other predictions, the Life Sciences executive also foresees a stronger focus on innovations and educational programs to combat antimicrobial resistance (AMR), as well as investments in mRNA technology vaccines and other advanced therapies.

All these developments align with the demands of an aging global population. Consequently, in parallel, an increase in the demand for assistive technologies and specialized care is expected.

"This scenario represents an opportunity for solutions that promote healthy and autonomous aging, while the challenge will be ensuring the financial sustainability of healthcare systems and the training of qualified professionals", reinforces Marcio de Paula.

Rogério Scarabel

A lawyer specializing in healthcare, he has extensive experience in supplementary and public health systems. He was head of the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS).

‍

When asked about expectations for 2025, Rogério Scarabel states that:

"2025 should be a very interesting year for healthcare, especially supplementary health — mainly because public health is a debate much more focused on budget discussions and whether Minister Nísia Trindade will remain in office or not. In supplementary health, things should be much more dynamic."

By "dynamics", Scarabel refers to five key issues that should be the focus of supplementary health this year, which are:

1. opening a regulatory sandbox (a new rule was approved in December 2024);
2. discussion of ambulatory plans;
3. debate on the sub-segmentation of ambulatory plans;
4. discussions on technical review, online sales, and MECREG (regulation mechanism), with the aim of determining whether there will be co-payment and deductibles;
5. expanding the risk pool in contract matters.

According to Scarabel, discussions on these topics should take the whole year, until the structuring of designs and models is completed. Changes in leadership positions will also influence the course of these debates.

"We have three directives that expire in 2025 and five major topics scheduled for discussion, in addition to the consequences and conflicts that will likely emerge once these changes take effect", concluded the lawyer.

Patrick Larragoiti Lucas

A specialist in health insurers and healthcare operators, Patrick Larragoiti Lucas was Chairman of the Board of Grupo SulAmérica for 35 years. He has also worked with Rede D'Or São Luiz and the Brazilian Institute of Corporate Governance (IBCG).

‍

For Patrick Larragoiti Lucas, artificial intelligence will continue to take center stage in the healthcare market.

Although AI is already a widely discussed topic, he believes there is still significant room for AI-driven healthcare projects in Brazil.

"Brazil hasn't done much in this area yet. We see some companies with initiatives, but they remain isolated", emphasizes the former Chairman of Grupo SulAmérica.

The expectation comes from the multiple potential applications of AI in healthcare. "We're talking about enhanced data analysis, better diagnostics, personalized treatments, chronic disease management and even telemedicine. All of this could radically transform healthcare in Brazil and worldwide. It will be a major shift, and I hope we can lead this transformation", he concludes.

On the other hand, for these AI advancements to take hold, Brazil must be properly aligned with the demands of the General Data Protection Law (LGPD).

"It’s a challenging law in Brazil, especially when it comes to improving data management. Hopefully, this legislation won’t stifle the potential AI has to enhance data management in supplementary health", stated Larragoiti Lucas.

Rita Ragazzi

A healthcare executive specializing in strategy, marketing, operations, investments, M&A, and digital health. She has worked at multinational consulting firms and the Life Sciences industry, including KPMG and Siemens Healthineers. She is currently Director of Markets and Policy Shaping in Health at Prospectiva Public Affairs LATAM.

‍

For Rita Ragazzi, oncology will be a key focus area in 2025, with advancements in CAR-T therapy, immunology, and molecular diagnostics.

Aligning with Márcio de Paula's predictions, she also sees mental health as a top trend, particularly within digital platforms, social media discussions, and symptom-tracking apps.

“Solutions that facilitate early diagnosis and validate the ROI of treatments will be highly valued”, reiterates Ragazzi.

Additionally, she highlights obesity and metabolic disorders, expecting new medications and digital platforms to gain prominence. Other key areas include neurodegenerative and neuromuscular diseases, which require attention due to their high treatment costs.

Regarding technology, she foresees the rise of digital platforms for:

• clinical trials
• real-world evidence (RWE)
• performance monitoring (risk-sharing agreements)
• digital health plan management
• oncology data tracking (aligned with government platforms)

In the health insurance sector, she anticipates growth in discount cards, new individual plan models and digital health plans.

Main events of 2024

May

In May, Rede D'or and Bradesco Saúde joined forces to invest more than R$1bn in hospitals, with the aim of minimizing losses in the sector. Initially, the idea is to create new units to serve the regions of Alphaville and Guarulhos, both in the state of São Paulo; and Macaé, a municipality close to the capital of Rio de Janeiro.

Also in May 2024, the legal framework for clinical research was finally sanctioned. In general, the decisions allow studies to have more legal protection, as well as being analyzed and approved more quickly. Green Rock explored the subject in more depth here. In short, it can be said that the Brazilian scientific scene should become more competitive with the new law.

June

In mid-June, the Dasa Group and Amil joined forces to expand Ímpar, a new hospital network that will be the second largest in Brazil as it encompasses the units of both networks, with more than 4,000 beds and 25 hospitals. The joint venture will thus compete with Rede D'or and Hapvida, which have 12,000 beds and 73 hospitals, and 5,700 beds and 6 hospitals, respectively.

August

In August, Oncoclínicas announced a new franchise program and a joint venture in Saudi Arabia, in partnership with the Al Faisaliah group. In this way, Oncoclínicas will open some units in the region and should expand throughout the Middle East in the future.

September

Finally, at the beginning of September, it was reported that health operators managed to make a profit for the first time since 2021. In all, there were 3.3 billion reais in profits in the first quarter of 2024. However, the real highlight goes to operating profits, which reached 1.8 billion reais and made it possible to reverse the 1.6 billion reais loss detected in 2023.

A Look Beyond 2025: A Five-Year Vision

Gonzalo Grillo

An expert in corporate transformations and restructuring, Gonzalo Grillo founded the Healthcare Industry Group in Latin America and has vast experience in the healthcare sector. He has served as CEO and Chief Restructuring Officer in several companies, advising major investment funds such as BTG Pactual and TPG Capital. He is also recognized for leading sustainable impact projects in healthcare.

‍

For Gonzalo Grillo, four issues should gain prominence in healthcare debates over the next five years. Among them, he suggests:

• conflicts of interest within the healthcare industry;
• corporate restructuring mechanisms;
• continuous education, particularly for patient-consumers;
• expansion of public-private partnerships.

According to the administrator, conflicts of interest permeate debates and negotiations throughout the sector. These are disagreements between different agents, ranging from health insurance companies and hospitals to doctors and the SUS.

“Each of them tries to maximize their benefit, their profit, which goes against the sustainability of the system”, he points out.

As for the mechanisms for restructuring health companies, Grillo says that most of the health industry does not use tools to help institutions after a period of restructuring.

“We're talking about foundations, non-profit companies, cooperatives and health plans, all of which are players that don't benefit from efficient restructuring mechanisms”, he observes.

As a result, some companies start to act like the “living dead”, which don't recover from the changes made and stop offering communities quality services.

In addition, Grillo advocates continuous incentives for the education of all agents involved in the health market, but especially for patients. In this sense, he stresses that “health insurance users don't understand the difference in prices between imaging tests at different institutions. The beneficiary, through the health insurance plan, goes to expensive places and this makes the system more expensive,” explained Gonzalo.

Finally, public-private partnerships should become increasingly common. Considering the increasingly tight budget for public health, coupled with the fact that the country continues to grow in population and the increase in life expectancy, “fostering these partnerships will help to deal with complex situations that put even more pressure on health costs”, concluded Grillo.